Climate & Environment
Is El Niño on the way to breaking records?
Something remarkable is happening in the tropical Pacific — and its effects will be felt here in Banbury and across Oxfordshire.
It's quite interesting to see how something happening so far away in the tropical Pacific can affect the weather here in the UK.
The science
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is the main reason why global temperatures change each year. It has two main phases: El Niño and La Niña, with a short neutral period in between. ENSO is mainly about changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, from around the dateline to the South American coast. El Niño happens when the sea surface temperature is more than 0.5°C warmer than usual, while La Niña makes it cooler by more than 0.5°C.
Measurement
How do we measure an El Niño?
How strong an El Niño is depends on the temperature anomaly:
±1.0°C
Moderate
±1.5°C
Strong
±2.0°C
Very strong (Super)
2026 event
The 2026 El Niño: a record-breaking start
The 2026 El Niño is starting and growing quickly. After two years of La Niña, something big happened in April 2026 when a measure called the Niño3.4 index went over the 0.5°C El Niño threshold.
How it has developed:
May1.0°C
moderate El Niño
June1.6°C
strong El Niño
Early Julyover 2.0°C
exceptional El Niño — the fastest start ever recorded
Forecasts
What the models are predicting
3.59°C
Median forecast peak, expected between July and December 2026
91%
of models think this will be the strongest El Niño ever recorded
2.75°C
Previous record, set during the 2015–16 event
When we look at how the tropical ocean has warmed over time using the Relative Niño3.4 Index, the forecasted peak temperature is around 3.1°C — considerably higher than the old record of 2.69°C set during the 1982–83 period. Even so, 77% of computerised climate models still think we may see a record-breaking event.
Local impact
When will it peak — and what does it mean?
Most climate models point to November or December 2026 as the most likely peak period. While the raw model numbers may be slightly elevated because the ocean is still warming, the 2026 El Niño is likely to have significant effects across the globe — including temperature records and severe weather events in the months ahead.
This will affect us and our services here in Oxfordshire. Hotter, drier summers put pressure on our roads, our green spaces, and our most vulnerable residents. Wetter, more volatile winters increase flood risk along the Cherwell and in low-lying parts of the division.
I will continue to raise these issues at Oxfordshire County Council and push for the kind of local resilience planning that our communities deserve.